Dive Into Energy Vision’s Flagship Report: Meeting the Methane Challenge

Since methane is an extremely potent but short-lived greenhouse gas, cutting methane emissions soon is the strongest lever available to slow global warming in the coming decades. 158 countries, including the U.S., signed the Global Methane Pledge, each committing to cutting their methane emissions 30% by 2030 (known as “30x30”) from 2020 levels. But aspirations are one thing, and implementation is far more challenging. Despite new levels of confusion and uncertainty at the federal level, one question remains: how can the U.S. feasibly cut its methane emissions?

That’s where Energy Vision comes in. In May 2024, we released our flagship report, Meeting the Methane Challenge: How the U.S. Can Reach Its 2030 Goal, which for the first time set out a concrete roadmap for exactly how the U.S. could achieve 30x30. The report analyzed multiple options for how much methane could feasibly be reduced, at what costs, on what timeframes (both for construction and payback), and at what comparative “bang for the buck” (or cost-effectiveness) in methane abatement.

Meeting the Methane Challenge focused on the national potential of anaerobic digestion of organic wastes as a key, commercial but underutilized option for slashing methane emissions. When organic waste like food scraps, animal manure, and wastewater decompose, they release methane-rich biogas. But instead of that biogas escaping into the atmosphere and warming the planet, it can be captured in anaerobic digesters (ADs) and used productively: either combusted to generate electricity or upgraded to pipeline-quality renewable natural gas (RNG). RNG is a sustainable fuel virtually identical to fossil natural gas except that it has much lower lifecycle carbon emissions – in fact, when sourced from manure or food waste, RNG is actually net carbon negative. This means it captures more greenhouse gases (in the form of potent methane) in its production than it emits (as less potent carbon dioxide) when combusted, making RNG a big win for the climate, especially when it displaces fossil fuels in transportation or heating.

We found that food waste and animal manure have the most potential for anaerobic digestion nationwide, with large feasible methane reductions and major “bang for the buck.”

• Building 680 food waste digesters (at average capacity of 50,000 tons per year) would cut total U.S. methane 7.5% at a capital cost of $31.7 billion. (This assumes that the edible half of all food that’s currently discarded is redistributed and the inedible half is diverted to ADs instead of landfills. If we continue to waste large volumes of edible food and instead divert that material for anaerobic digestion, the methane reduction potential of this strategy grows accordingly.)

• Building ~4,000 dairy and swine manure digesters at medium and large farms would cut total U.S. methane 6.1% at a capital cost of $42.5 billion. This assumes building ADs at all dairy farms with at least 500 cows and at all swine farms with at least 5,000 pigs, the lowest feasible thresholds.

Together, building ~4,700 ADs to process food waste and manure would cut 13.6% of total U.S. methane emissions at a capital cost of $74.2 billion. This would annually reduce half of landfill methane emissions (by keeping food waste out of landfills) and three quarters of dairy and swine manure methane emissions. Since AD projects typically take 2-6 years to build, much of that infrastructure could be up and running by 2030. The payback time for ADs varies according to many factors but is typically 2-5 years. We calculated the collective bang for the buck of building these ~4,700 food waste and manure ADs to be 1,360 metric tons of methane reduction per million dollars of capital investment.

Perspectives from Germany: Energy Vision recently had the opportunity to participate in a German biogas study tour (hosted by EnviTec Biogas), which will be the feature/focus of a future post. For now, some of the high-level findings may help provide context relative to Meeting the Methane Challenge and the opportunity set to significantly expand deployment of AD systems here in the US. Germany is arguably 15 years ahead of the U.S. in its energy transition journey, and bioenergy (especially anaerobic digestion) has been a central pillar in its strategy. In fact, the country (roughly 20% of the U.S. population and about half the size of Texas) has deployed nearly 9,000 AD systems, or nearly twice the number of new systems envisioned for the US in Meeting the Methane Challenge.

Meeting the Methane Challenge set the stage for mapping out feasible, cost-effective action that can get us to 30x30. Building ~4,700 ADs to process food waste and manure would cut U.S. methane emissions 13.6%, bringing us almost halfway to the 2030 goal. The report calculated that full compliance with EPA’s revised New Source Performance Standards for oil and gas production by 2029 would bring us the rest of the way and even beyond 30x30. While that component is no longer realistic under the Trump Administration and in light of Congress having just repealed the closely related methane fee on large emitters in the oil and gas sector, other options in the oil and gas sector can still make big differences. These options, including targeting the leakiest subset of wells, were analyzed in Meeting the Methane Challenge and will be the subject of future posts. Ultimately, there are multiple paths to reach 30x30.

In that vein, this spring we'll release a short follow-up paper on advanced landfill gas capture technology, and later this year we’ll review the latest technological advances to reduce methane emissions from enteric fermentation (i.e., from cow belches). In both cases, Energy Vision will provide a detailed cost and feasibility analysis, including how many more percentage points toward 30x30 they can feasibly take the U.S. Stay tuned!

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All of our reports are available for free at our website, www.energy-vision.org